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I only needed to say it about 8 times 😂. I always had you down as a fan of XG Lucky. Seemed to remember seeing you mention XG a fair bit. Might be thinking of someone else. I know a lot don’t bother with it. I’m only starting to to accept the benefits of it recently. It’s not, a some seem to believe, a definitive way to determine how well each team played or who deserved to win. However, it’s a damn sight more insightful than reading biased comments from older generation fans who “see the game with their own eyes and don’t need bloody stats”. To put my view on it into perspective, Utd vs Newcastle in the final was an XG of 1-1- We won 2-0. Do I think we were luck to win it based on that? Of course not, but similarly, I wouldn’t be confident on us getting the same result/outcome if that game was played again with the same chances falling to each team. We took our chances (and more) and Newcastle didn’t. Newcastle fans will (and believe me, they are doing) take heart from the xg stats as it shows them the sides aren’t far apart and better finishing would have seen them lift the cup.

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Brighton by the way 👀. I know how much you all love xg 😁

We discussed this about 25mins into the pod last night, top 5 teams for non penalty xG per game since the restart:

Brighton 2.14
Man City 2.08
Liverpool 1.98
Man Utd 1.83
Arsenal 1.66

The seagulls are certainly flying (damn you Solly, again) https://t.co/QG2F8YgHjT

— Baker343 (@BakerFPL343) March 6, 2023

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Yeah, you’re probably right. It’s going to be a group of mini leagues I think where my 1 and 2 could go either way, my 3 and 4 could go either way and then the 5,6,7 could be in any order. I think you’re brave going for Spurs to get 3rd. I’d be amazed if anyone other than Liverpool gets above us at this point.

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Or even unlucky to lose by 7. Absolutely not what I’m saying.
We weren’t unlucky . 😁

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1. Arsenal
Like everyone else,I’ve been expecting them to bottle it and they still might. But I’m starting to feel like they may just snatch it. Will be tight though.

2. City
If they beat Arsenal at the Etihad, you’d fancy City for 1st but I think Arsenal might nick a point.

3. Liverpool
Said all through the terrible run they’d have too much quality to not get top 4 and I think Sunday’s result will push them on now and they’ll likely have nothing left to play for so will be fresher than the other top 4 contenders.

4. Utd.
Simple. The quality of the teams below us isn’t good enough. Newcastle are fading. Spurs look good 1 game in every 5 then revert to boring Conte ball again.

5. Brighton.
Reckon they’re going to finish really strongly.

6. Spurs.
The likely departure of Conte will not help their flow. Too unpredictable.

7.
Newcastle. Reckon they’re going to completely fade now.

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Again, not at all what I’m saying Lucky. My point is not that we were unfortunate to lose by 7 but that such a freak swing in Xg goal difference (2) to real goal difference (7) is not something you can expect to be a regular occurrence and so we shouldn’t be too disheartened and let it derail our season. Full credit to Liverpool for taking their chances much more effectively than we did. There’s no way anyone can interpret that as me or anyone else saying we were unlucky to lose.

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No, that’s fair enough, though I’d argue there’s not much difference between 5th down to 10th or so if you’re not getting CL anyway. I still think they’ll finish above you this season 😄

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Fair enough. I thought your 4th paragraph was aimed at me. I don’t think I’ve read a single comment by Utd fans saying we were unlucky though tbh.

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I do. Do you think if we did a poll to see how many think they’ll qualify for the next 5 out of 7, many would say yes? I’d expect Brighton to have as much of a chance as Spurs to do so. Again, that’s a compliment to Brighton more than any criticism of Spurs.

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Again, I haven’t once mentioned luck, Lucky 😄. Not once have I claimed Utd were unlucky. We deserved everything we got. Not sure how many times I’ve reiterated that. What I’m suggesting is that it’s a freak occurrence to have a swing from a 2 goal xg difference to a 7 goal difference. Going forward, we can expect that will not happen again so this result shouldn’t take away from all the good work/results we’ve had this season, just as Liverpool’s hammering by Madrid doesn’t take anything away from this fantastic result they got yesterday.

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Mikus, I’d say that’s very fair yes. We were hammered and that’s the reality, in case anyone still thinks I’m trying to excuse it 😄

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Cyber-hype? We just won a trophy and knocked out probably the best team in Europe outside of the PL in the EL. Since goals/results are the only thing that matter, right? 😄😉

Don’t you realise Chucky that you’re saying the only thing that matters is the goals then proceeding to say Utd haven’t been as good as everyone says recently and thereby completely contradicting your “goals is everything” point? The very fact we all see games differently is the reason xg exists. If the alternative to xg and data insights is to check in with forums/social media to gauge how a team is doing then I’m taking the new stats revolution every single day.

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I don’t expect you to say anything different as a Spurs fan, Chucky. Just as I’d expect you to disagree with me that Kane might see Kane to Utd as a step up. I can’t help but feel he would see Brighton to Spurs as one almost CL club to another. I don’t think either would expect to feature much in the top 4 in the coming years with the emergence of Arsenal and Newcastle’s new found wealth on top of the expected return of Liverpool to the mix. A mix that already has City cemented for decades to come and us knocking on the door again.

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I think I’m being misinterpreted here. By saying “the only thing that matters is the goals.” Well yes, that’s pretty damn obvious. Still, do you think managers analyse games and go “right lads,7-0. Moving on…”? What would bethe point of punditry if goals were the only thing we cared about? By saying “that’s not a 7-0 game”, it seems to be interpreted as me saying we were unlucky. We deserved everything we got. There, I’ve said it again 😄. But it’s till incredibly rare to have such a high conversion rate and all I’m saying is that, psychologically, Utd can take heart from the fact the stats suggest it was a game where we underperformed in terms of chance conversion and Liverpool massively overperformed.

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Which Brighton manager do you mean? The current one? I don’t think De Zerbi leaves Brighton for Spurs to be honest. I think he’s next in line for a regular CL team. That’s not to disrespect Spurs but Brighton are arguably a better team at the moment and a better place for a manager like him to thrive. I fancy him to go to Chelsea which ultimately frees up Potter, who could replace De Zerbi and go back to Brighton potentially. Poch might be your best shout. It’s surely him or Tuchel unless you go for someone completely different like Gallardo, formerly of River Plate who will be looking for a big job.

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“There’s no justification for the Villa result…apart from the fact we lost Van Dijk and there were no supporters…” you’re worse than me Nil 😄

P.s. he played

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Sean, I realise what I am writing might look like I’m trying to downplay the result or call it lucky in some way. It absolutely wasn’t lucky and there’s no getting away from the fact that we were hammered. Xg and the like is here to stay though and the quality of chances in the game shouldn’t have resulted in a 7-0 result. I’m merely trying to take heart from the fact that the result looks worse than it is as it’s all I’ve left to hold onto. Just as the Liverpool-Madrid game wasn’t a 2-5 game. I know a lot don’t bother with all these new stats and that’s fine. As you say, the history books will always say 7-0 no matter what.

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Yeah looking ominous now Chucky

The Antonio Conte era is coming to an end. Neither side wants a new deal. So what comes next? Tottenham don’t want a repeat of 2021. My piece looking at Pochettino, Tuchel and other possibles. https://t.co/8eNVOQEoZC

— Jack Pitt-Brooke (@JackPittBrooke) March 7, 2023

I think it might be Tuchel to follow the Spurs trend of going for ex Chelsea managers.

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In fact, the xg from Villa 7-2 Liverpool was actually remarkably similar to Liverpool Utd. Both sides were hammered but you could argue in both cases that they were freak results because the winning side just scored way more than could be expected from the chances created.

Aston Villa (3.76) 7-2 (1.62) Liverpool

— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) October 4, 2020

Souness probably needs reminding that he blamed the length of the grass for the above defeat too, before he criticises Neville for not giving Liverpool enough credit.

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To be honest I dont really get the whole xG thing. Take Liverpools recent beating from Madrid, I know we were actually good for about 20 minutes but we ended the game with a higher xG than Madrid despite being walloped.

The scoreline certainly suggests they were walloped by Madrid but shots, shots on target, possession was all pretty even. Real Madrid scored 5 goals from 6 on target. They had no right to score at such a high conversion rate and from the quality of the chances they had. It’s not to say anyone’s interpretation of the game is incorrect if they feel Madrid actually hammered Liverpool. It’s just pointing out that the quality of chances each side created was pretty even. Liverpool took theirs (as they matched their XG). Real took more than theirs. They scored goals they had no right to score under normal circumstances.

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