4th September 2019 at 10:35 am #47009
You’re missing my point (and made my point for me at the same time!), cyber chum, you’re trying to convince us by the very simple virtue of goal difference that City are 4.3020833 times better than Palace, despite Palace beating them on their own patch.
This is why we play the game, not just give it to the team everybody thinks is most likely to win it in the end. But by trying to put an actual number on it, based on what I would suggest is a flawed formula, is probably not a good idea (especially when I’m bored at work!).
Yes, City are the best team in the land, yes, Liberoools are the 2nd best team in the land, but hell no am I going to agree they’re 4x better than everybody else. As I just mentioned, two very minor differences in the two games against Spuds were the difference between 1 and 4 points and the goal difference.4th September 2019 at 10:43 am #47010
No Im with you banjo. That this game allows for such upsets is what makes it so great, but it was an upset none the less. city are still vastly superior, and regardless of that result city will still be at least 1 to 4 on with bookies to beat palace when they next meet.4th September 2019 at 10:46 am #47011
Don’t get me started on Bookie’s odds… 🙂
(Which are more to do with their desire to separate punters from their cash than an actual “reflection” on the actual odds of a sporting event! Yes, there are similarities, but not a true sporting reflection!)4th September 2019 at 11:02 am #47015
So if we were to implement this it would encourage teams to go out to annihilate the weaker opposition, this will force all teams to play their strongest team at all times, so where is the opportunity for the younger players to be introduced when games are comfortable, answer it goes, we’ve had pages and pages on here about youth development this idea would be another nail in the coffin….Pagan4th September 2019 at 11:08 am #47016
banjo, my degree is mathematics. at uni we developed model for calculating football odds and when you account for a bookie margin of approx 13% their odds very closely correlated with ours. we only considered objective stats not levels of money wagered. The GF/GA ratio was more sophisticated in the modelling and tried to factor out luck by looking at abilities to create clear chances relative to ability to concede few clear chances, bit like expected goals eg4th September 2019 at 11:10 am #47017
pagan, not something I want implemented mate4th September 2019 at 11:30 am #470194th September 2019 at 11:35 am #470204th September 2019 at 11:43 am #47022
Never said I passed either… 🙂4th September 2019 at 12:02 pm #47023
oh we KNOW you havent Nancy that wasnt in question 🙂4th September 2019 at 12:39 pm #47024
Ouch… you’re not sharing my dustbin anymore, get your own!!4th September 2019 at 1:16 pm #47025
thank friday for that!4th September 2019 at 1:20 pm #47026
Banjo, I dont like bookies either mate, but they know what they are doing.4th September 2019 at 1:21 pm #470274th September 2019 at 1:29 pm #47029
One thing I found interesting looking back at the numbers for past champs is that for a long while it seemed as though scoring 1.7 goals per goal conceded used to put a team in contention for a title. Most of utd’s titles were won averaging just over 2 goals per goal conceded. If you look at it chronologically you see roughly a pattern of the bar being lifted.
First Arsenal come along, they didnt raise the bar that much at first from 2.00, but the invincibles did raise it to 2.81. You can see then that chelsea came along right after and as a result of being defensively the best PL ever and having a decent attack they blew all previous numbers away. You can see how utd reacted to this and how their numbers sharply increased to the 3’s in response considerably higher than what they used to show, and they regained dominance.
Liverpool and city pushed themselves to a tremendous height last year, both breaking 4.
It will be interesting to see if they both get above 4’s this year too, considering it is such a unique achievement in prem history. Liverpool currently on 4.00, city on 4.66, only 4 games gone so means little, but can they do it again? I think they can.
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