Home Community General Football Forget Expected Goals, How About Expected Threat?! πŸ˜€

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  • #184230
    Luckydestiny
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    #184232
    Brian blue
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    Wonderful hindsight and “IF” technology.. Keep to enjoying a game of football, I do not want mathematical solutions that will fail to a host of reasons not mentioned…in short…pointless

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    #184233
    Brian blue
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    PS. Lucky…an interesting post though!

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    #184235
    Luckydestiny
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    Lol Brian I didn’t get the utility of it myself. I mean expected goals I get we just assign values to different types of chances and get a measure of the quality and quantity of chances created. But that is of course not just secondary but irrelevant compared to the goals actually scored, expected threat is an even more detached analysis than that.

    Any way, if there any value in the data I am glad we have kept Callum Hudson-Odoi at chelsea because he us our highest player on list.

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    #184259
    Mikus
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    Makes you think that’s partly why City went so quickly to get Grealish, when they saw how far ahead he was of everybody else in that list.

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    #184260
    Luckydestiny
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    Yeah it makes sense he be high on that list mikus mate and wouldn’t surprise me if clubs are using this data in some way

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    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by Luckydestiny.
    #184290
    Brian blue
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    Lucky…another view is that. if you accept one action, i.e. “expected goals”. then hit should follow that all other actions are qualified in the same manner. We now have a Mathematical game of theory……the answer to this is to read up on John Ruskin he had a way of evaluating just about anything

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    #184291
    Luckydestiny
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    All can be reduced to numbers Brian its just about whether we can do anything with it or not

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    #184306
    Mikus
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    I think in a competitive market, clubs are desperate to find things in players others can’t, and thus find very shrewd buys. But everything has to obviously be put in context, and whilst perhaps some stats can be useful, I can’t help think a lot of this is a very complicated over clever way of finding something a seasoned scout could have told you in much more basic and less mathematical terms. But good stats, be it basic ones or much deeper and complex ones, can be very attractive and can almost have an alluring quality about them which I’m sure influences clubs and draws them in. But given the huge pool of players now, I guess it’s easier to tabulate their data versus having to scout all of them.

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