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I know how it works Lucky. I’m fully aware it doesn’t mean Liverpool would rarely score more than 3 if you played the game multiple times. Liverpool are underperforming against their XG (before Sunday) by 10 goals over 24 games. So, they usually score 0.41 goals less than the chances they generate suggest they should. So, they’re less than an average team, by your definition. Utd, before Sunday concede around the same amount as they should vs XGA. That Liverpool overperformed on their XG by 5 goals (a 2 goal diff vs a 7 goal diff) is very much against the trend for the season. That’s not to say it wouldn’t happen again but it would be a massive swing in the trend.
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