Lads, Xg just gives a measure of the quality of chances and approximates the number of goals that would usually lead to based on averages of all players in league, whether great or shite.
What all are missing here is that great players and teams outperform Xg on a mixture of luck but mostly quality.
In both pool loss to Madrid and pool victory over utd the winning team grossly out performed their xg. Madrid did it because of the quality they had in junior and benzema, they can’t be held to laws of the average and Xg becomes meaningless if it ignores that it was the superior quality on the night that made the difference and led to Xg being exceeded.
For utd loss, sure utd fans can claim bad luck that it was 7 but it wasn’t bad luck that pool scored more than Xg of 3 as much of that was down to the superior quality of salah, gakpo and nunez of the day.
All the analysis in the world leads to same conclusions, real destroyed pool and pool destroyed utd.
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